ποΈ ARV Calculator
After repair value, max offer, and flip profit.
Maximum offer under the 70% rule
Estimates for planning only, not financial advice.
After repair value is the cornerstone number in flipping: what the property will sell for once renovated, estimated from comparable sold homes. On a $310,000 ARV with $45,000 in repairs, the 70% rule caps your offer at $172,000, leaving a 30 percent margin for profit, holding costs, and surprises. Buy at $200,000 instead and the gross spread is $65,000 before costs, which is where most flips are won or lost: in the gap between the rule and the actual offer.
How to Use This Calculator
Enter your comp-based ARV, the repair estimate, the rule percentage (70 is standard; adjust for your market), and your actual or planned offer price. Add holding, closing, and selling costs plus a repair contingency. The calculator returns the max offer, the projected profit, and the profit as a share of ARV.
Set ARV from sold comps only: similar homes, sold in the last 3 to 6 months, within about half a mile. Never use list prices.
Enter repair costs from contractor bids, not guesses, and set a contingency of 10 to 20 percent. Underestimated repairs are the number-one flip killer.
Compare your offer to the max offer, and check projected profit after all costs. Under 10 percent of ARV is thin; walk away or renegotiate. For rental analysis instead of flipping, use our rental property calculator.
The Formulas
The 70% rule bakes in everything the flip must fund: the 30 percent discount covers your profit target (10 to 15 percent of ARV), two sets of closing costs, realtor commissions, holding costs, and the inevitable surprises. When investors say "the money is made at the buy," they mean this equation: overpay by $20,000 and no renovation brilliance recovers it.
Worked Example: $310,000 ARV
ARV: $310,000. Repairs: $45,000. 70% rule max offer: $310,000 x 0.70 - $45,000 = $172,000. Suppose you negotiate a $200,000 purchase, $28,000 over the rule. With a 15 percent contingency, repairs become $51,750. Add $25,000 of holding, closing, and selling costs. Total project cost: $200,000 + $51,750 + $25,000 = $276,750. Projected profit: $310,000 - $276,750 = $33,250, a 10.7 percent margin on ARV.
At the $172,000 max offer, the same math gives $172,000 + $51,750 + $25,000 = $248,750 in costs and $61,250 profit, a 19.8 percent margin. The $28,000 overpay nearly halved the profit, which is the 70% rule working exactly as designed: it protects the margin you need to survive the surprises. Every month the flip sits unsold, holding costs eat a few thousand more, so speed is profit.
Getting ARV Right
| Comp rule | Do | Do not |
|---|---|---|
| Recency | Sold within 3-6 months | Use year-old sales in moving markets |
| Distance | Within ~0.5 mile, same neighborhood | Cross highways or school zones |
| Similarity | Same beds, baths, sqft within 20% | Compare ranches to two-stories |
| Price type | Sold prices only | List prices (aspiration, not value) |
Adjust comps for real differences: add value for the comp's missing garage, subtract for its new roof versus your 15-year-old one. Three well-adjusted comps beat six lazy ones. And get a second opinion from an investor-friendly agent before offering; your ARV optimism is the most expensive bias in the business.
When to Break the 70% Rule
The rule is a screen, and screens have exceptions. Light cosmetic rehabs ($15,000 of paint and floors) carry less risk than gut renovations, so 75 to 80 percent can work. Hot appreciating markets let investors pay more because the ARV itself grows during the project, though that is speculation wearing analysis clothes. And buy-and-hold investors use different math entirely: they care about rent and refinance appraisals, not flip margins.
Never break the rule because you "love the house" or because you have already spent weekends analyzing it; sunk cost is not a valuation method. The discipline that makes flippers rich is walking away from 90 percent of deals. Run every candidate through this calculator with honest repair bids and a real contingency, and let the profit margin decide. For financing the purchase, our business loan calculator prices hard-money and conventional options, and the ROI calculator frames the return on your cash invested.
The ARV Mistakes That Kill Flips
Three errors account for most blown ARV estimates. Wrong comps: using renovated sales from a better block, or sales older than six months in a moving market, inflates the number you are underwriting. Over-renovation: putting $60,000 of finishes into a neighborhood where buyers pay for $30,000 of finishes adds cost without adding value; renovate to the neighborhood, not to your taste. Ignoring holding costs: six months of mortgage, tax, insurance, and utilities on a $300,000 project can exceed $15,000, and it comes straight out of profit.
The 70 percent rule exists because of these errors: pay no more than 70 percent of ARV minus repairs, and the 30 percent margin absorbs the appraisal that comes in low, the repair that doubles, and the extra two months of holding. When a deal only works at 80 percent, it does not work; it is a hope with a spreadsheet. Run the ARV three ways (comparable sales, price per square foot, and agent opinions) and underwrite the lowest.
Estimates for planning only, not financial advice.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is ARV in real estate?
After repair value is what a property will be worth once renovated, estimated from comparable sold properties. If fixed-up 3-bed homes nearby sell for $310,000, your project's ARV is about $310,000. Every flip calculation, offer price, loan amount, and profit estimate, starts from ARV.
How do you calculate ARV?
Find 3 to 6 comparable properties: similar size, age, style, and condition-after-repair, sold within about half a mile in the last 3 to 6 months. Adjust for differences (a comp with a garage is worth more than one without), then average or weight the adjusted prices. This calculator takes your comp-based ARV and runs the investment math from there.
What is the 70% rule?
The 70% rule says your maximum offer is 70% of ARV minus repair costs: max offer = (ARV x 0.70) - repairs. On a $310,000 ARV with $45,000 in repairs, the max offer is $172,000. The 30% discount covers profit, holding costs, closing costs, and surprises. It is a screening rule, not a law: thin markets and light rehabs can justify 75 to 80%.
How much profit should a flip make?
Target at least 10 to 15 percent of ARV in profit after all costs, with $25,000 to $30,000 as a rough minimum to justify the risk and effort. On a $310,000 ARV bought at $200,000 with $45,000 in repairs, the $65,000 gross spread must still cover holding, closing, and selling costs, which often take $20,000 to $30,000.
What costs do flippers forget?
Holding costs (loan interest, taxes, insurance, utilities for every month you own it), two rounds of closing costs (buy and sell), realtor commissions on exit (5 to 6 percent), and the contingency (10 to 20 percent over the repair bid). A flip that "makes $65,000" often nets $30,000 after the forgotten costs. This calculator includes fields for all of them.
How accurate is ARV?
Only as accurate as the comps. Good comps (truly similar, recent, nearby) give ARV within 5 percent; bad comps (different neighborhood, stale sales, aspirational listings instead of sold prices) can miss by 20 percent. Never use list prices as comps, only sold prices, and drive the comps yourself before trusting anyone's ARV.
Does ARV matter for the BRRRR strategy?
Yes, critically. In BRRRR (buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat), the refinance is based on the appraised ARV, and the loan (often 75% of appraised value) must repay the purchase and rehab financing. Overstated ARV strands your cash in the property instead of recycling it into the next deal. Conservative ARV is the whole game in BRRRR.
What is the difference between ARV and as-is value?
As-is value is what the property is worth today, distressed and dated; ARV is what it will be worth fixed up. The gap between them, minus repair costs, is the value the flip creates. Hard-money lenders lend against ARV (usually 65 to 75% of it), which is why accurate ARV determines how much cash you need to close.
Can I use price per square foot for ARV?
As a sanity check, not as the method. Multiply the comp average $/sqft by your property's square footage, then adjust for lot, condition, and features. Price per foot ignores layout, upgrades, and lot value, so use it to cross-check a comp-based ARV, never to replace it.
How do repairs affect ARV vs offer price?
Repairs reduce what you can pay dollar for dollar under the 70% rule, but they also create the ARV: no repairs, no ARV uplift. The skill is estimating repairs accurately, because a $20,000 underestimate comes straight out of profit. Get contractor bids before offering, add 15% contingency, and walk away when the numbers do not work at the bid price.